Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
